Dated assumptions · transparent formulas
Future Value With Withdrawals
Withdrawals are negative recurring contributions. This guide shows how to project a balance under withdrawals, compare rate assumptions, and check the runout year.
Educational calculator. Inputs stay in your browser. Historical ranges are not forecasts or investment advice.
Inputs
Estimate comparison
| Assumption | Rate | Nominal FV | Real FV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lower estimate1-year Treasury constant maturity | 4.28% | $7,915.29 | $6,716.21 |
| Middle estimateS&P 500 rolling 30-year total-return median | 10.80% | $9,621.50 | $8,163.95 |
| Higher estimateS&P 500 rolling 30-year total-return 75th percentile | 12.04% | $9,996.02 | $8,481.74 |
Growth curve and yearly schedule
The same projection engine draws each estimate and feeds the collapsible year-by-year detail.
- Lower estimate
- Middle estimate
- Higher estimate
Show year-by-year detail
| Year | Opening | Deposits | Interest | Ending |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $1,000.00 | $1,200.00 | $174.73 | $2,374.73 |
| 2 | $2,374.73 | $1,200.00 | $330.77 | $3,905.50 |
| 3 | $3,905.50 | $1,200.00 | $504.53 | $5,610.03 |
| 4 | $5,610.03 | $1,200.00 | $698.01 | $7,508.04 |
| 5 | $7,508.04 | $1,200.00 | $913.45 | $9,621.50 |
Rate assumptions and sources
Lower / Middle / Higher estimates · reviewed 2026-09-12
- Lower estimate
4.28%
- FRED: 1-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate (DGS1)
Retrieved 2026-09-12 · observation 2026-09-10
Dated benchmark snapshot.
- Middle estimate
10.80%
- Damodaran historical returns, 1928-2025
Retrieved 2026-09-12
Median of 69 overlapping 30-year S&P 500 total-return windows through 2025.
- Higher estimate
12.04%
- Damodaran historical returns, 1928-2025
Retrieved 2026-09-12
75th percentile of 69 overlapping 30-year S&P 500 total-return windows through 2025.
- Inflation: 3.34%
- FRED: Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPIAUCSL)
Compound annual change from August 2016 to August 2026; user input can replace it.
How withdrawals change future value
Deposits and withdrawals are the same input with opposite signs. A positive recurring contribution is added to the balance before it compounds; a negative recurring amount is removed at the end of each period.
Payment timing matters. End-of-period withdrawals let the balance compound for the full period before money comes out, while beginning-of-period withdrawals remove cash one period earlier.
Worked example: $250,000 with $1,500 monthly withdrawals
Enter a $250,000 starting balance, a -$1,500 monthly contribution, monthly compounding, and a 7% annual growth assumption for 10 years. The projection is about $242,800 nominal: growth on the remaining balance slightly outweighs the $180,000 of total withdrawals.
The same schedule at a 4% return projects about $151,800, which shows how sensitive a withdrawal plan is to the return assumption. At 2.5% inflation, the 7% result represents roughly $189,700 of current purchasing power after 10 years.
Try changing one input at a time: raise withdrawals to $2,000 per month, lower the growth rate, or extend the horizon. Each experiment makes the tradeoff between spending today and balance longevity concrete.
Finding the runout year
When withdrawals outpace growth, the projection reaches $0. The calculator stops at zero instead of compounding a negative balance, and the yearly schedule shows exactly when the money runs out.
That exhaustion point is a stress-test result, not a safe withdrawal rate. Taxes, fees, and market sequence risk are outside this projection.