Dated assumptions · transparent formulas
Withdrawal Exhaustion Calculator
Enter a starting balance and recurring withdrawal to find the year each return assumption reaches $0.
Educational calculator. Inputs stay in your browser. Historical ranges are not forecasts or investment advice.
Inputs
Estimate comparison
| Assumption | Rate | Nominal FV | Real FV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lower return stressRounded withdrawal stress assumption | 4.00% | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Middle return stressRounded withdrawal stress assumption | 6.00% | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Higher return stressRounded withdrawal stress comparison | 8.00% | $53,659.86 | $27,815.09 |
Lower return stress: exhausts in year 14
Middle return stress: exhausts in year 17
Higher return stress: survives through year 20
Growth curve and yearly schedule
The same projection engine draws each estimate and feeds the collapsible year-by-year detail.
- Lower return stress
- Middle return stress
- Higher return stress
Show year-by-year detail
| Year | Opening | Deposits | Interest | Ending |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $250,000.00 | -$24,000.00 | $14,748.33 | $240,748.33 |
| 2 | $240,748.33 | -$24,000.00 | $14,177.71 | $230,926.03 |
| 3 | $230,926.03 | -$24,000.00 | $13,571.89 | $220,497.92 |
| 4 | $220,497.92 | -$24,000.00 | $12,928.70 | $209,426.63 |
| 5 | $209,426.63 | -$24,000.00 | $12,245.85 | $197,672.48 |
| 6 | $197,672.48 | -$24,000.00 | $11,520.88 | $185,193.36 |
| 7 | $185,193.36 | -$24,000.00 | $10,751.20 | $171,944.55 |
| 8 | $171,944.55 | -$24,000.00 | $9,934.04 | $157,878.59 |
| 9 | $157,878.59 | -$24,000.00 | $9,066.48 | $142,945.08 |
| 10 | $142,945.08 | -$24,000.00 | $8,145.41 | $127,090.49 |
| 11 | $127,090.49 | -$24,000.00 | $7,167.54 | $110,258.03 |
| 12 | $110,258.03 | -$24,000.00 | $6,129.35 | $92,387.38 |
| 13 | $92,387.38 | -$24,000.00 | $5,027.13 | $73,414.50 |
| 14 | $73,414.50 | -$24,000.00 | $3,856.92 | $53,271.43 |
| 15 | $53,271.43 | -$24,000.00 | $2,614.54 | $31,885.97 |
| 16 | $31,885.97 | -$24,000.00 | $1,295.53 | $9,181.50 |
| 17 | $9,181.50 | -$9,312.84 | $131.34 | $0.00 |
| 18 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| 19 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| 20 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
Rate assumptions and sources
Lower / Middle / Higher estimates · reviewed 2026-09-12
- Lower return stress
4.00%
Editable scenario input
Editable lower-return withdrawal stress input.
- Middle return stress
6.00%
Editable scenario input
Editable middle withdrawal stress input.
- Higher return stress
8.00%
Editable scenario input
Editable higher-return withdrawal stress comparison.
- Inflation: 3.34%
- FRED: Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPIAUCSL)
Compound annual change from August 2016 to August 2026; user input can replace it.
How exhaustion is calculated
Withdrawals are entered as negative recurring contributions. Interest compounds on the remaining positive balance; once the balance reaches $0, later withdrawals are skipped.
The exhaustion panel reports the first year the selected schedule reaches $0. The yearly table shows the opening balance, actual withdrawals, interest, and closing balance before depletion.
This calculator projects a fixed withdrawal schedule. It does not estimate a safe withdrawal rate, model taxes and fees, or predict market returns.
Worked example: changing returns and runout year
Start with $625,000, withdraw $4,500 each month, and project 30 years. At 7% annual growth with monthly compounding, the account reaches $0 in year 24. The prior year still opens with about $42,293; interest is about $1,333, while that year's withdrawals are about $43,626. This is why depletion can arrive suddenly after a balance becomes small.
At 4% growth, the same schedule exhausts in year 16. Eight years of difference comes from a 3-percentage-point return assumption, but that is not a promise that 7% is safe. The lower-return case is a stress test, and an actual portfolio can have a poor early sequence even if its long-run average is high.
The yearly table makes timing visible. Withdrawals are modeled as equal end-of-month cash flows; interest is credited to the remaining balance each month. If the balance reaches $0, later withdrawals are skipped rather than compounded as a negative account. Try changing withdrawals to $4,000 or $5,000, then compare the runout years instead of focusing only on the ending balance.
Common misconceptions include reading the result as a safe withdrawal rate, ignoring taxes on taxable withdrawals, or assuming a fixed dollar withdrawal preserves purchasing power. It does not: $4,500 buys less each year if prices rise. Use this tool to compare schedule stress, then consult authoritative tax and retirement-plan sources for actual distributions.
For a second test, keep the same $625,000 balance but change withdrawals to $3,750, $4,500, and $5,250 while holding 7% constant. The runout year should move substantially with each step. That experiment demonstrates why the withdrawal amount is usually more controllable than the return. It also reveals nonlinear behavior: a 17% larger withdrawal does not merely reduce the ending balance by 17%; it can pull depletion several years earlier because compounding has less remaining principal to work with.